Bitcoin Options Max Pain: Calculation and Why It Is Not a Target
Max pain is the price at which option buyers, in aggregate, would lose the most at one expiry. It is a calculation from open interest, not a forecast.
Short answer
Max pain is calculated for a single expiry: for each candidate settlement price, sum the intrinsic value all open calls and puts would pay, and find the price where that total is lowest. That is where option buyers collectively lose the most and writers keep the most premium. Deribit's educational material notes it depends on one expiry's open interest and is limited on its own. Open interest changes daily, positions are hedged, and price is driven by far more than options, so max pain is context, not a target.
Calculation
For each strike K considered as the settlement price S: payout = Σ calls OI × max(0, S − strike) + Σ puts OI × max(0, strike − S). Max pain is the S with the smallest total payout.
| Settlement S | Call payout | Put payout | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58,000 | 50 | 900 | 950 |
| 60,000 | 200 | 300 | 500 |
| 62,000 | 700 | 100 | 800 |
Why it's not a target
Reasonable uses
Near expiry, with large OI concentrated around a few strikes, hedging flows can matter more. Max pain then helps you see which strikes carry the most payout sensitivity. Combine with gamma exposure (see Gamma Exposure in Crypto: Model Assumptions Before Market Conclusions) and skew (see Bitcoin Options Skew vs Put-Call Ratio: Different Sentiment Inputs).
Example: max pain moving
Illustrative: a week before expiry, max pain sits at 58,000. Over the next four days, large call open interest is added at 64,000 and some puts are closed. Recomputed max pain moves to 61,000. Anyone treating the first figure as a target was working from a number that no longer described the expiry.
Recompute max pain from current open interest each time you use it, and record the timestamp.
Conclusion
Treat max pain as a calculation about one expiry's OI, useful context near expiry, not a price prediction.
Open the options workspace to see OI by strike and expiry.
Open ChartsPod optionsPut Bitcoin Options Max Pain next to price, flow and positioning in one workspace.
Open a ChartsPod workspaceQuestions readers ask
Does price move to max pain at expiry?
Not reliably; max pain is a calculation, not a forecast.
How is max pain calculated?
Find the settlement price minimising total intrinsic payout to option holders for one expiry.
Does it change?
Yes, as open interest changes.
Sources and methodology
Derivatives definitions come from Binance's USD-M market data documentation, Hyperliquid's funding documentation, Bybit's liquidation rules and Deribit Insights, as read on 17 October 2026. ChartsPod features were checked on its public pages. Examples use illustrative numbers.
- Deribit Insights: Maximum pain — max pain from OI at one expiry.
- Deribit Insights: Genesis Volatility options data guide — skew, smile, term structure.
- ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.
This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.
CHARTSPOD EDITORIAL EDITION · RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.