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DERIVATIVES · LIQUIDATIONS

Liquidation Heatmap vs Reported Liquidations: Estimates and Events

A liquidation heatmap estimates where positions might be liquidated. Reported liquidations are events that happened. Confusing them leads to confident but wrong expectations.

By ChartsPod Editorial Team · Reviewed by ChartsPod Research
Published · Updated · 5 min read

Short answer

Liquidation heatmaps are models: they estimate where leveraged positions could be liquidated from open interest, assumed leverage distribution and entry prices. Reported liquidations are exchange events with size and time. Use the heatmap as a hypothesis about where forced flow could occur and reported liquidations as evidence of what did occur. Compare them after the fact to learn how well a given model fits the market.

Model vs event

Liquidation heatmap vs reported liquidationsLiquidation heatmap vs reported liquidations. Left, Heatmap (estimate): Model of possible levels; Assumes leverage and entries; Forward-looking; Can be wrong. Right, Reported (event): Exchange-published events; Actual size and time; Backward-looking; Coverage varies by venue.HEATMAP (ESTIMATE)Model of possible levelsAssumes leverage and entriesForward-lookingCan be wrongREPORTED (EVENT)Exchange-published eventsActual size and timeBackward-lookingCoverage varies by venue
Hypothesis versus evidence. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Model assumptions

AssumptionWhy it matters
Leverage distributionSets where levels fall
Entry price estimatesPositions opened at unknown prices
Margin modeCross margin can survive longer (Bybit docs)
Partial liquidation rulesNot all positions close at once

Exchanges also differ in how and how completely they publish liquidation events; aggregators can only show what venues report.

Comparing after the fact

Illustrative: estimated vs reported long liquidations near a level (BTC)Illustrative: estimated vs reported long liquidations near a level (BTC): Estimated cluster 2,500 BTC; Reported in zone 900 BTC.ILLUSTRATIVE: ESTIMATED VS REPORTED LONG LIQUIDATIONS NEAR A LEVEL (BTC)Estimated cluster2,500 BTCReported in zone900 BTCIllustrative. Estimates often overstate; margin top-ups, stops and partial liquidations reduce events.
The model pointed to the right area; the size was overstated. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.
Post-event checkPost-event check: Did price reach the estimated zone?; Reported liquidations there (size, venues); Price reaction: cascade or absorption; Record model and time used.POST-EVENT CHECKDid price reach the estimated zone?Reported liquidations there (size, venues)Price reaction: cascade or absorptionRecord model and time used
Calibrate the model with outcomes. Original ChartsPod editorial graphic.

Building your own calibration

Each time price enters an estimated liquidation zone, record the zone, the model, the reported liquidations by venue and the price reaction. After a few dozen events you will know whether the model tends to overstate size, place zones too close or too far, and whether price usually cascades or absorbs in that market. That knowledge is more useful than any single heatmap.

Use

Use liquidation heatmaps as hypotheses and reported liquidations as evidence, and compare them to calibrate.

Related: Order-Book Heatmap vs Liquidation Heatmap: Which Data Do You Need?, Aggr.trade Liquidation Prints: Check Venue Coverage and Event Timing.

Watch reported liquidations next to price and the order book.

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Test Liquidation Heatmap vs Reported Liquidations on a perpetual chart; no account is needed to chart.

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Questions readers ask

Are liquidation heatmaps accurate?

They are estimates; accuracy depends on assumptions.

Where do reported liquidations come from?

Exchange-published events; coverage varies.

Why were fewer liquidations reported than estimated?

Margin top-ups, stops and partial liquidations reduce events.

Sources and methodology

Derivatives definitions come from Binance's USD-M market data documentation, Hyperliquid's funding documentation, Bybit's liquidation rules and Deribit Insights, as read on 17 October 2026. ChartsPod features were checked on its public pages. Examples use illustrative numbers.

  1. Bybit: Liquidation process — mark price and margin modes.
  2. Aggr changelog — workspaces, audio thresholds, liquidations, alerts.
  3. ChartsPod: product overview, pricing and FAQ — free terminal, venues, modules, no order placement; checked 17 Oct 2026.

This article explains research tools and workflows. It is not financial advice, does not recommend buying or selling any asset and does not predict prices. Crypto derivatives carry a risk of rapid and total loss of margin.

CHARTSPOD EDITORIAL EDITION · RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.